2021 hurricane season forecast to be another active one
NOAA, Colorado State University, AccuWeather and other respected forecasters are all predicting a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin in 2021.
Ginny Beagan, Wochit
Hours after NOAA predicted another above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic, forecasters have a second system to watch.
The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring two systems in the Atlantic basin: a non-tropical system area of low pressure off Bermuda and a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.
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System in Gulf could bring heavy rain to Texas, Louisiana
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: low, 20 percent.
The newest system to pop up is a surface trough and a mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. It’s producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the 2 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the western Gulf of Mexico through today, with strong gusty winds and seas to 10 feet.
Subtropical cyclone Ana forecast to develop in Atlantic
- Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: high, 80 percent.
A non-tropical low pressure area located about 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is expected to move west-southwest over warmer waters during the next day or so.
It will likely become a subtropical cyclone later today or on Saturday near or to the northeast of Bermuda.
If it does, it could become Subtropical Storm Ana, the first named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.
The low is then forecast to move northeast into a more “hostile environment” by Saturday night or Sunday.
It is not expected to be a threat to land.
“The biggest hurdle the system will face in terms of tropical development is relatively cool water temperatures, which currently range from the middle 60s to near 70 F,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
“For tropical development we would like to see water temperatures upwards of the middle 70s and preferably near 80 or higher,” Douty added.
The most likely time frame for the system to develop would span Friday to Saturday night.
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