Pound euro exchange rate: GBP near one-month high on faster UK wage growth | City & Business | Finance


In the former case, average earnings without bonuses included have risen by 2.9 per cent in August, while the with-bonuses figure has risen by 2.6 per cent.

Both of these readings put the rate of wage growth above the rate of annual inflation, which was reported to be 2.5 per cent in July.

As such, news of still-low unemployment and a faster pace of wage growth has raised hopes for a 2019 Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike.

The UK central bank has previously resisted raising interest rates until it believes that households can cope with the higher interest payments, so wages rising above inflation would seem to open the door to a future rate hike.

Making the case for an imminent rate hike was former BoE policymaker Andrew Sentance.

He said: “Unemployment [is] down. Wage growth [is] up. Why hold back on further rate rises?

“[The BoE] should raise rates to 1 per cent in November, and to 1.5-2 per cent by [the] end of 2019.”

In other news, the pound has also found support from yesterday’s remarks from the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, who has made some optimistic statements about Brexit progress.

Proving that his remarks can greatly influence pound demand, Mr Barnier managed to boost the pound euro exchange rate by saying that the November negotiation deadline could be met “if we are realistic.”

Over in the Eurozone, this morning’s economic data has shown a rise in the number of employed people and better-than-expected ZEW economic confidence scores.

This has kept the euro trading in a narrow range against the pound, but hasn’t been enough to cause a euro pound rally.

Looking to the rest of the week, the pound and euro could face volatility on Thursday’s central bank events.

First up will be the BoE meeting at noon, which isn’t expected to bring any change to interest rates.

BoE policymakers could still push the pound euro exchange rate higher, however, if they suggest that today’s jobs market figures could open the door to a late-2018 rate hike.

In a similar situation, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting isn’t expected to bring an announcement of higher interest rates but could still support the euro against the pound.

A 2018 interest rate hike isn’t anticipated from the ECB, but if it looks like the expected 2019 rate hike could come sooner rather than later then the euro pound exchange rate could rise.


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